Model probability
A model output is useful only when it carries its opportunity identity, cutoff, uncertainty, and calibration state.
Methodology
Clear states, auditable evidence.
SacBoyz Signals distinguishes a model probability from a sportsbook price, a calculated edge from a publication decision, and a historical record from a current signal.
Fair price and executable price
The interface keeps fair odds separate from the actual sportsbook price used to evaluate a decision.
Conservative edge
Raw edge, effective edge, uncertainty, and the required publication threshold remain visible instead of being compressed into a grade.
Publication states
Featured, Signal, No Signal, and Unavailable are different outcomes. Missing or stale evidence fails closed to Unavailable.
Sport-owned evidence
Performance, release evidence, and activation decisions remain sport-specific. This site does not blend records across sports.